Navigating the quarterback quagmire: Unraveling the challenges of drafting a winner

A look into the numbers to understand whether a quarterback's long-term success can be foreseen during the NFL draft

Dec 06, 2023

The success or failure of the quarterback position has always fascinated me. It’s like a wild roller-coaster—so volatile that it’s difficult for casual fans to keep up with their favorite team’s signal-caller. Gino Smith went from a bust to a Pro Bowler in his 30s. Carson Wentz went from being a Pro Bowler, ranked the third-best player in the NFL by his peers, to being a backup journeyman in a few short years. I decided to dig into some research and numbers to understand whether a quarterback's long-term success can be foreseen during the draft and explore why teams struggle so often in their predictions.

Jimmy Garoppolo was patiently groomed as Tom Brady’s heir, ready to take the Patriots’ torch. After four years of being coached in Bill Belichick’s system and a couple months into the 2017 NFL season, Garoppolo was surprisingly traded to the San Francisco 49ers for a second-round pick. He ended up starting the last five games for the 49ers and won all of them, bringing his career starts record to 7-0. That off-season, he scored a five-year contract worth over $137 million, the largest contract in NFL history on an annual basis at the time. Two years later, Garoppolo led the 49ers to the Super Bowl but lost to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Garoppolo was plagued with several injuries as a 49er. Though he played well, he didn’t live up to his contract. The 49ers decided to trade three first-round picks and a third-round pick to move up to the third pick in the 2021 draft. They took Trey Lance out of North Dakota State to be their future quarterback. Lance served as Garoppolo’s backup for the 2021 season.

In the 2022 NFL draft, the 49ers selected Brock Purdy, a quarterback out of Iowa State. He was the last pick in the draft (#262), a pick which has been deemed ‘Mr. Irrelevant.’ Scouting reports on Purdy indicated he was "not a very good athlete” with limited arm strength. Purdy was named the third-string quarterback while Lance beat out Garoppolo for the starting spot.

During the 2022 season, both Lance and Garoppolo went down with season-ending injuries. Purdy took over quarterback duties in week 13 and became the first Mr. Irrelevant to throw a touchdown in a regular season game. The next week, Purdy became the only quarterback in his first career start to beat Tom Brady. The 49ers ended the regular season with five straight wins with Purdy as the starter. He had a passer rating of 119.4, the highest for a quarterback in his first five starts since Kurt Warner.

The 49ers won their first two playoff games, making Purdy only the third rookie quarterback to win two playoff games since 1970. In the NFC Championship game, Purdy injured his elbow and wasn’t able to throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field. The 49ers lost to the Philadelphia Eagles 31-7, but they had finally found their quarterback of the future.

At the beginning of the 2023 season, Purdy was named the starter. The 49ers had since moved on from Garoppolo and Lance was named the third-string quarterback after Sam Darnold was signed as a free agent. A few days after Lance was demoted to third-string, he was traded to the Dallas Cowboys for a fourth-round pick.

Purdy is now leading the 49ers to first place in their division and second place in the NFC. He just came off a convincing victory against the Eagles in which he threw for 314 yards and four touchdowns. After the game, he became the betting favorite for MVP. The 49ers are poised for another deep playoff run behind their second-year quarterback.

You have to give props to the 49ers for being willing to move off of their hyped quarterbacks. They paid Garoppolo a record-busting contract and traded valuable picks to draft Lance third overall. They were willing to admit to their mistakes and instead moved forward with a quarterback who was an afterthought for 31 other NFL teams.

Subpar quarterback draft numbers

The 49ers aren’t the first team to go through the wringer to find their franchise quarterback. In 2018, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold were taken before Josh Allen. Josh Rosen was also taken before Lamar Jackson that same year. Mitch Trubisky was taken ahead of Patrick Mahomes in 2018 and Tom Brady wasn’t taken until pick #199 in the 2000 draft—behind seven other quarterbacks.

In the 60s, quarterbacks taken in the top 10 picks of the NFL draft only made an All-Pro team about 50 percent of the time. The same percentage held true for quarterbacks taken during the remainder of the first round. Fast forward to the mid-2010s and the story is the exact same as it was in the 60s. During the 2022-23 season, 21 of the 32 starting quarterbacks were taken in the first round. Of those first-round picks, they had a combined winning percentage of 46%. Not a great record for quarterbacks who are supposed to be the franchise leaders.

Multiple academic studies have concluded that college stats and NFL Combine performances have very little value in predicting whether a quarterback will succeed in the NFL. Economists David Berri and Rob Simmons have written that where a quarterback is taken in the draft doesn’t predict NFL performance. So, what makes it so difficult to draft a quarterback?

An art more than a science

Drafting a quarterback is certainly an art more than it is a science. It’s probably the hardest position to evaluate in sports. NFL teams have years of game film, pages of scouting reports, in-person workouts, and interviews—yet still will pick quarterbacks incorrectly. There are a few reasons why teams make mistakes when drafting a quarterback.

1. Relying on one physical attribute or singular performance

Teams often rely too much on the physical attributes of quarterbacks. Berri and Simmons’ research shows that quarterbacks who are taller, faster, and smarter (e.g. better Wonderlic scores) are often drafted higher. Coaches, scouts, and GMs can become obsessed with a single quarterback attribute—throwing accuracy, arm strength, dynamic athlete, or poise in the pocket. However, there is often no rhyme or reason for their obsession over a single attribute. As Michael Robinson, a former NFL player, pointed out on the NFL Explained podcast, a team’s obsession over an attribute can change from draft to draft, oftentimes contradicting the importance of one attribute over the other based on what feels convenient. He says that sometimes teams should go back to the basics and ask themselves, “Does this quarterback know how to win?”

Teams will also give too much weight to the NFL Combine or Pro Days. Pro Days now are often manipulated for players to only participate in drills and sessions that play to their strengths. The most recent example of this is Zach Wilson. He has amazing arm strength, which was demonstrated in his Pro Day at BYU. Many feel this single pass impacted the New York Jets taking him second in the draft.

There’s more to the Zach Wilson story though. We’ll talk more about that below.

2. Not relying more on the quarterback’s history

Berri and Simmons' research found that passing completion percentages in college correlate with NFL completion percentages. This is one data point NFL teams could use to gauge the throwing accuracy and success of a potential draft pick.

Another interesting stat line is that since 2022, the last 10 Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks have averaged 35 starts and thrown 1,200 pass attempts in college. Trey Lance, whom the 49ers drafted third overall after trading three first-round picks, only had 17 starts and threw only 318 times in college.

Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers head coach has said:

“Eventually in the NFL, you have to sit in that pocket and play from the correct position, which doesn’t happen in college very much. That takes reps for guys to do, and it takes a certain type of ability that you can’t just measure. You’ve got to see them do it.”

It’s a bit interesting he decided to draft Lance with a statement like that.

3. Not focusing on the intangibles

There are a few intangibles that are very objective and difficult to measure unless you see how a quarterback practices and interacts with teammates. However, they are important for teams to try and assess before handing over the playbook to a new young quarterback.

Do they have a personality that a locker room will rally behind when the team isn’t playing well?
How well do they communicate with teammates and coaches?
Are they authentic leaders that a 32-year-old veteran will run across the middle of the field for?
Do they have the type of work ethic that raises the level of play of everyone on the team?

A product of the environment

Once a quarterback is taken, there are lots of different factors as to why they could succeed or be a bust. It is rare to find a quarterback who can come in and instantly turn a losing team into a winning one overnight. For those who don’t have that type of influence over a team, circumstances play a big role in a quarterback’s success or failure.

1. Team schemes

Quarterbacks in the NFL are expected to do more than quarterbacks in college. Oftentimes college coaches will implement a simple offense to make it easier for less talented players. That’s not the case in the NFL. Quarterbacks need to not only understand their own team’s schemes but also their opposing team’s schemes. Many young quarterbacks struggle with this early on. They must read the defense before the snap, understand coverages, and adjust play calls on the fly. Matt Hasselbeck, a former NFL quarterback, said understanding pass protections was one of the most difficult things he had to adjust to in the pros. He said:

“I think that’s why there’s job security for these veteran quarterbacks who are less talented than some of these kids coming out of college. Less athleticism, less quickness, less arm strength. Every coach in the league would rather have the guy they can trust, get us into the right pass protection and [not] be fooled.”

Some team schemes also may not be the best fit for the skill set of a particular quarterback. A coach’s offensive preferences can greatly impact the production of a young quarterback.

Hasselbeck also said:

“You’re dependent on a great coaching staff. That’s a huge part of it. Mac Jones had an awesome rookie year (in New England). He was rolling with (former offensive coordinator) Josh McDaniels. But with the new coaching staff on offense, he was a total flop. He went from being a Pro Bowl quarterback to really having a terrible year.”

2. Surrounding talent

It’s important to remember that the NFL is a team sport with 22 starters across offense and defense. We oftentimes see highly drafted quarterbacks being surrounded by 21 other players who just aren’t that good. There’s a reason the team received a high draft pick in the first place. It ends up putting a lot of pressure on an unproven quarterback with a team that may have a recent history of losing.

Frank Reich, a former NFL head coach, spoke about the importance of the players surrounding a quarterback:

“What I think makes it so hard, [is] you’re so dependent on everything around you. How good is the offensive line, how good are your receivers, how good is the defense? There [are] so many factors and the quarterback is at the center of that.”

A fine line between success and failure

Coming back to Zach Wilson—in addition to potentially overvaluing his arm strength, he probably doesn’t have the talent or coaching surrounding him on the offensive side of the ball to be put in a position to win. He was recently benched and just this week it was reported that he may be asked to step in and start again. Apparently, he is hesitant to run back on the field for his team given the current circumstances. Obviously, something more is going on behind the scenes, but it appears that Wilson might not have confidence in his coaching staff.

Meanwhile, Purdy, who didn’t appear to have any outstanding attributes was picked last in the draft but was put into a great team situation. He has the chance to win a Super Bowl and MVP this year. Now, Wilson and Purdy are not the same, but it is an interesting thought experiment to think about what each of their situations would be like if their roles were reversed. As we’ve seen countless numbers of times, quarterbacks can go from nobodies to Super Bowl heroes and vice versa in the blink of an eye.

There is no silver bullet when it comes to drafting quarterbacks, but there are a few things teams can do to make more educated decisions. Don’t fall in love with a single player attribute, rely more on the quarterback’s history, focus on the intangibles, and set your quarterback up for success by adjusting to their strengths and surrounding them with talent. Easier said than done, but it could be the difference between playing in February or sitting at home.

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